Friday, October 26, 2012

McKinley Park Fundraiser with SactoMoFo

The fundraising for rebuilding McKinley Park continues and the target numbers have gotten better. They are now projecting approximately $200,000 for a minimum rebuild and $600,000 for a major rebuild. It sounds like insurance and city funds will add up to $500,000 so the fundraising target for the community is $100,000 and they are already fast on their way to this. Several more great fundraisers and we should have a new playground next summer.

Want to get in on the fundraising and have a great meal too? Then go to the SactoMoFo (Sacramento Mobile Food) event on Sunday October 28th from 12:00 to 4:00 at the Sutter Landing Regional Park (28th Street over the tracks past C Street).

As per Steve’s Facebook:

“Come and enjoy lunch & a beer with your neighbors, Councilman Steve Cohn, and MC Mark S. Allen – and great live music from Hero's Last Mission and Rebel Punk - with some of the region's best mobile kitchens and some of Sacramento's best restaurant chefs, too! We'll have an extensive beer garden full of local microbrews and everything from paella to sandwiches to BBQ to authentic Hawaiian shave ice and Belgian waffles. We hope you can make it - and please consider riding your bike! We will have lots of bike parking, and maybe even a bike valet!”

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

River Park Fall Festival at Caleb Greenwood Elementary

The Caleb Greenwood Elementary School is having it’s fall festival on October 19th from 5:00 to 8:00. If you have some time to spend in River Park Friday, swing by for all the great things that a elementary school fall carnival can provide. Costume contests, face painting, cakewalk, live music and more. It is scheduled to start at 5:00 at 5457 Carlson Drive.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Shadow Inventory

I don’t usually post about new articles that I see, but this one was very good and relevant to so many conversations that I’ve had recently.

The article is titled “Now You See It, Now You Don’t” and it is about the “shadow inventory” and the market condition.

Anyone that works in the real estate industry knows that right now we have very low inventory and lots of interested buyers. Sacramento currently has 0.8 months of inventory on the market.

The Months of Inventory is a reflection of how many houses are for sale and how many are being purchased each month and how long would it take for them all to sell at the current rate. The lowest Month of Inventory durring the boom was April 2003 and the highest inventory in the bust was September 2007. 4 months of inventory is a very balanced level with numbers lower than that being considered a sellers market and anything above that being a buyers market. Now we have seen several months in a row with inventory levels lower than 2.0 and even below 1.0!

What is the reason for this? Are the banks holding onto a lot of shadow inventory, covering the carrying costs, keeping the non-performing assets on their books (or just doctoring them so they don’t show up) and waiting for/manipulating the market to improve before selling them? Do they have hundreds of thousands of houses that they have foreclosed on and are going to dump them on the market when prices come up?

While I love a good conspiracy theory, I also believe that the simplest explanation with the least assumptions is often the best (a version of Occam’s Razor).

This article went into several detailed aspects and included that by all expert analysis there is only a minimal amount of bank owned properties that aren’t put on the market quickly. I have often seen bank owned listings that show only 1 day on market (DOM) but hundreds of combined days on market (CDOM). I look at the history and see that this was a short sale that sat on the market for months waiting for bank approval for the sale but finally ended in foreclosure. The bank then had their asset manager arrange for the clean out, new paint and carpet and listed the property for sale, all in less than 30 days (otherwise, the CDOM would be the same as the DOM).

The big issue that this article pointed to is that there is a different kind of shadow inventory and it’s not what I or most people consider or refer to as shadow inventory. It is all the properties that are delinquent on their payments and will most likely never become current. It is the houses in pre-foreclosure, foreclosure or short sale status where no payment is being made, the owners are getting further and further under water and the most likely outcome for them is foreclosure.

The article then goes further to point out that all the people that are living in a home in foreclosure, pre-foreclosure or a long, drawn out short sale process aren’t selling, they aren’t buying (and won’t be able to for a long time) and they aren’t even renting.

According to the reports, if all the properties that are currently owned by banks but not on the market were listed tomorrow, we wouldn’t even notice it. On the other hand, if all the delinquent properties were foreclosed on in the next couple months and put on the market, that would make a huge impact and we would definitely feel it.

Of course, this hypothetical blood bath of massive foreclosures over a few months time isn’t going to happen for many reasons. The real reasons this wont happen and the conspiracy theory reasons include: foreclosure regulations, loan modification attempts, banks being too slow and bogged down, banks wanting to hold off on foreclosures until the properties are worth more, etc.

Many regular sellers don’t want to sell at the bottom of the market if they don’t have to, so they are sitting on their property waiting for the value to come back up. I’m pretty sure that the bottom of the market for Sacramento was in December 2011, but we still have a ways to go for many owners to have enough positive equity in their homes to do a regular sale.

Whatever the real story is, there isn’t enough inventory on the market and the banks are not sitting on vacant houses that they own but just don’t want to sell. My buyers are scrambling over the few properties that are on the market and competing with multiple offers. It is a brutal market and I look forward to getting back to something that could pass as “normal”. Fortunately, we live in a world of impermanence and this too shall pass.

You can read the full article here starting on page 14.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Oktoberfest at the Turn Verien

This is the 45th annual Octoberfest to be hosted in East Sac’s Turn Verien. Come out on Friday October 12th from 6:00 to 11:00 or Saturday October 13th from 3:00 to 11:00 for traditional German food, beer and dancing.

They will also have the traditional German band, the Gruber Family Band in the Main Hall, with the rock-& roll band AKA LIVE upstairs. The Alpentänzer Schuhplattler will perform colorful traditional German dances during the evening. The Turn Verein’s Kaffeehaus and outdoor Biergarten will be open throughout the evening, offering German food specialties and beer from Munich.

How did this wonderful tradition start, you may be asking yourself. The Turn Verien has these details on their site:

“Prince Ludwig (later King Ludwig I) of Bavaria (the grandfather of “Mad” Ludwig II) started it when he threw a wedding party on the occasion of his marriage to Princess Theresia of Saxony-Hildburghausen on October 12, 1810.

Ludwig gave an open invitation to the people of Munich, and about 40,000 of them came. The Prince set up tents in a field on the outskirts of Munich, later called ‘Theresienwiese’ (Theresa’s meadow) in honor of his lady. To entertain the crowd he organized a horse race and supplied copious amounts of beer. Everyone had such a good time that they decided to hold the horse race (and beer drinking) again the next year, but this time in conjunction with the state agricultural show. The rest, as they say, is history. The local brewers realized that they could sell a lot of beer in a very short time, the reason why it has become a 16-day extravaganza ending the first Sunday in October.”

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

1457 47th Street Construction

This great project at 1457 47th Street in the Fab 40's is about to enter my favorite phase. Where there is framing built out on the second story but no windows installed. I love going in as a break in a day of working on deals for clients and just hanging out a second story window and watching the neighborhood.

I can’t do it yet because the stairs aren’t installed and I’m not about to bother the work crew with a guy in slacks climbing around on their ladder…

Monday, October 8, 2012

1210 40th Street Construction

The new front door is on 1210 40th Street and the insulation is going into the walls and ceiling. Stucco should be applied soon and drywall will go up and then it will really start to feel like the house that it is becoming.

I’ll get to hold this Fab 40's home open before I know it (assuming that someone doesn’t buy it before it’s finished…)

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Sacred Heart Fall Festival

Saturday October 6th from 11:00 am to dusk will be the 71st annual Sacred Heart Fall Festival. They will have live music, bingo, a craft fair, farmers market booth, and so much more.

According to their website, here are some of the events that are scheduled:
Noon-2:00pm - Come visit with Dinger from the River Cats Baseball team
2:00pm - Lip Sync and Kick Off by "Your SHPS Cheerleaders"
4:00pm - Hula Hoop Contest - Open to all children Grades K-8
7:00pm - Dance the night away to the original and cover songs from "Zaragoza"

Shepard Garden and Art Center annual Fall Art, Craft and Plant Sale

Those of us who live within walking distance to McKinley Park in East Sac are sure to notice the extra traffic for the Shepard Garden and Arts Center annual Fall Art, Craft and Plant Sale. Not only will they have plants, art and hand made crafts for sale, they will also have “harvest food”, which to me means Pumpkin Bread!

The two day event will take place at the Shepard Garden and Arts Center at 3330 McKinley Blvd on Saturday October 6th & 7th from 10:00 to 4:00 each day.

Check them out at:

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

McKinley Library Zombie Survival

OK, this is just too much fun so I have to share. The McKinley Library is hosting a Zombie Survival fitness class on Sat, October 6 from 11:00-12:00  

According to their website:
“We all know the zombie apocalypse is coming. The question is, are you fit enough to survive?

This workout will help you get in shape to duck, dodge, or kick some undead butt! Wear loose comfortable clothes (theme dressing strongly encouraged) and bring a bottle of water, you’ll need it! Taught by Lipstick Librarian of the Sac City Rollers.

Prize awarded for the best costume.”

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

1210 40th Street Under Construction

Work is moving along nicely at 1210 40th Street in the Fab 40's of East Sac. All the windows are in place as well as all new plumbing and electrical.

They are getting ready to do the first rough coat of stucco on the exterior, the interior is ready for the drywall and the roof has been loaded with the tiles. It is starting to feel more and more like a house instead of a construction site. The finishes will come together quickly from here on out.

Monday, October 1, 2012

MENA Community Meeting including Sutter Park!

This Wednesday, October 3rd will be a McKinley East Sacramento Neighborhood Association (MENA) Community Meeting. It will start at 6:30pm at the McKinley Park Library at 601 Alhambra Blvd.

On the agenda is:

Councilman Steve Cohn discussing the rebuilding efforts of the McKinley Park playground that was partially destroyed by fire.

Stonebridge Properties will be presenting their proposal for Sutter Park at the Sutter Memorial Hospital site. Come and get a good look at displays of the proposed development and hear about the results of previous community meetings.

Ed Cox and Deb Newton of SABA (Sacramento Area Bike Advocates) will talk about the speed on H Street, traffic counts and control efforts recently implemented.

The Greek Anunciation Church will be presenting their planned project and discussing their efforts to enhance present church facilities and provide a visual linkage with McKinley Park.

Friends of East Sacramento will be providing an update on the McKinley Park Rose Garden renovation and status of the Clunie Community Center management transition to their organization.

The Sacramento Police Department and EASTSACWATCH will provide an update on incident reports and community crime fighting efforts.

If you live in East Sac but aren't already a meeting of MENA, you should join because you will get all the details on the neighborhood emailed directly to you!